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  • USDream2Dust
    03-23 10:33 PM
    Thank you. I need to buy a house and I have no savings. I make a lot of money but no savings. You guys are inspiration. I am going to jump off the cliff and buy a house. Worst come worst I would contribute to the worsening economy and end up in foreclosure. But I think unless I try I would end up getting old in my 1 bedroom apt.

    I need help. I am searching online a lot of real estate agents. How do you do it? I am in NJ and don't even know what area is good and I heard you have to look for schools for kids (i don't have but would have in 1-2 years). Do real estate agents recommend any areas?

    There is only 2 things I know.
    1. I need house
    2. I can afford 500k house.


    Any inputs recommended :)





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  • GCBatman
    01-07 04:11 PM
    "Refugee_New", dude I like your enthusiasm to answer not only one but many users at the same time but you may want to watch out for the red dots as well they are increasing like anything on your profile.

    To everyone,
    Peace Peace & Peace
    Once again I condemn all the acts that leads to the deaths of innocents especially the kids.
    Every problem in this world can and should be resolved by negotiations. I pray that both sides should come forward and resolve this issue diplomatically.

    Said that now please work together for all the EB immigration issues.

    bfadlia, i sent you a PM. Respond me when you have time.





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  • obviously
    08-05 08:59 AM
    Rolling Flood,

    Clearly, you are a NumberUSA person trying to provoke deep rifts amongst a highly skilled workforce that succeeded in getting HR 5882 out there. Your game is up. Look, no one is claiming porting / interfiling is due to 'length of time'. Each application, under each category, is for a DIFFERENT job. Now, obviously, when you gain experience in one job, you become MORE ELIGIBLE for another job, typically at a more senior level. With that, comes a higher income and higher TAXES back to the USA. So, it is likely that EB3 applicants might have started in one job, gained 5 or 6 years experience, a Masters degree and a few certifications etc., and then become attractive candidates for jobs that require a Masters degree ... hence being eligible for an EB2 filing. The folks reviewing EB applications didnt start yesterday and are not wet behind their ears. EB3's that interfile to EB2's have to, LIKE ANYONE ELSE, show the merits of the EB2 application BY ITSELF. There is no notion of 'imagined eligibility'. If that hypothesis were true, how do we know that you did not suffer from a case of 'imagined eligibility' yourself??!!

    Your perverted logic that people are using interfiling on the premise of 'waiting time in EB3 queues' is a fallacy without legal merit. It is a classic case of riding the ladder of inference and using your own conclusions to make up supporting-evidence, to the contrary of reality and law.

    Now, if you think you can snake in a controversy through a law suit, only to protect your inflated sense of protectionism, keep in mind, that your target is the EB2 category itself, not the interfiling process. That latter is a provision of law. I presume that you are in EB2 yourself. Be prepared for unintended consequences because USCIS could very well freeze ALL EB2's INCLUDING YOURS! Might seem a far stretch, but realistically, anytime a court sees 'merit' in challenging an established system, ALL come under purview. How can your case be assumed to be 'innocent' while everyone else that you are against be 'guilty'? How do we know that YOUR EB2 filing was not based on 'assumed eligibility'?

    There are numerous cases of people going to court seeking 'justice' only to find themselves very quickly standing 'on the other side'... trying to get out of a self inflicted mess.

    Obviously, you have issues that run deeper than discontentment with US legal immigration process. Get yourself some help. Seriously.

    I challenge you to disclose
    YOUR REAL NAME
    YOUR CASE NUMBER
    YOUR EMPLOYER'S NAME
    YOUR EB2 JOB DESCRIPTION
    so that the larger community can find out if there really is no eligible US person to take that job. Seriously. Want to play that game? I can give you a 100% guarantee, that you would rather fight a 'shadow cause' being the coward you are ... and wont hold yourself up to the kind of scrutiny that you wish to hold others to.





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  • pani_6
    07-13 01:15 PM
    What ever you might say Lawyers acted in DOL advise..


    Very good point by alterego.
    This letter has a very striking problem in it.. one that can cause a huge problem for the people signing it.
    How can one say that they wanted to apply in EB2, but their lawyer said they should apply in EB3?
    As pointed out by pappu, Category is determined by job requirements and not the summary qualifications of the beneficiary.
    If you sign and say that the lawyer said you should apply in EB3/EB2/whatever, you are essentially stating that lawyers were involved in fabricating the job requirements. This is the same problem that is causing Fragomen clients to be investigated/audited.
    This is just an advice. I am prepared to support IV and the members in whatever we decide to follow.



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  • Macaca
    12-27 06:27 PM
    A Who's Who of Indian sleaze
    Leaks of tapped phone conversations reveal how corruption propels India's booming economy (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/26/india-sleaze-corruption-economy)
    By Praful Bidwai | The Guardian

    The leak of hundreds of nearly 6,000 tapped telephone conversations between corporate lobbyist and British citizen Niira Radia and many of India's politicians, businessmen, bureaucrats and journalists has shocked the country. The tapes reveal the lobbying to assign the telecommunications portfolio to the politician A Raja, who sold mobile telephone licences at throwaway prices to favour particular companies, at an estimated loss of $12bn to $38bn to the exchequer � the highest-ever figure for an Indian corruption scandal.

    Even more important, though, are the corporate lobbyists' attempts to influence government policies in a host of areas; to rig cabinet appointments; and to plant stories with high-profile journalists in which support for parochial business interests would be dressed up as "the national interest".

    The tapes' dramatis personae read like a Who's Who of India, but despite the personalities involved attention is now turning to the larger story � the influence of business over politics, and lobbyists' intrusion into policy-making on scarce natural resources, licensing of industries, and "regulatory capture". Suddenly, the inner workings of government, the compromised roles of high officials and the limitless venality of businessmen stand exposed to the harsh light of public scrutiny.

    The Radia tapes are the tip of the iceberg. They shock because they provide the clinching evidence for a few of the many recent scandals, including the astronomical corruption in contracts for the Commonwealth Games; mining and metallurgical projects that blatantly violate environmental regulations; corporate land grabs in the guise of export promotion zones; the razing of virgin tropical rainforest to make way for opulent housing; and the ripping up of mountain ranges to build dams.

    Scandals and corruption are not new to India. Businessmen have long milked the exchequer through tax breaks, rigged licensing procedures and fraud. What is new is the neoliberal policy context, the quality and intimacy of business-politician-bureaucrat collusion bordering on a corporate takeover of government, and the growing plunder of public money. The thinktank Global Financial Integrity estimates that rich Indians have spirited abroad the equivalent of half of India's GDP over six decades. Illicit flows have greatly increased since the economy was liberalised in 1991. The notorious (often exaggerated) excesses of the "licence-permit raj" of the 1960s and 1970s pale beside the new crony-capitalism.

    Sleaze is integral to India's growth, and one of its main drivers. The growth is skewed. Agriculture has stagnated, per capita food consumption has fallen, 200,000 indebted farmers have committed suicide. Industry has grown sluggishly and only forms about one-fourth of GDP. But services have boomed. The highest growth sectors are property, construction, telecoms and road transport � not IT. Capital accumulates through the privatisation of natural resources and dispossession of whole communities. In all these sectors, and in mining and metallurgical production, what counts is privileged access to natural resources and the national commons, most critically land, which is at the core of the government's discretionary powers.

    "Liberalisation" has recast discretionary powers and allowed a new business-politics relationship to develop. Behind each of India's new billionaires is political patronage. Here lies the underbelly of India's growth: using crony-capitalist influence to corner mining leases, property development rights, construction permits and airwaves. It is not the free market, but manipulation and distortion, that propels growth.

    One part of the seamy side of India's growth is well-known: persistent poverty, social bondage and economic servitude. The Radia tapes highlight another: sleaze and collusive business-politics relations that mock transparency, accountability, democratic policy-making and the public interest.





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  • GCScrewed
    07-13 09:30 AM
    No matter what discouragement there is, it is definitely worth the try. With the trying, you may not get relieved. But without the trying, you will definitely not. People should also add their own arguments in the letter too. All the comments on how to make this letter better should be welcome. Now it is time to see if this community is really sticking together and if those who benefit will help those suffering.



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  • GCInThisLife
    07-19 02:17 PM
    UN,
    Sorry for sending the PM.

    This link was provided in another thread regarding H1B status. Not entirely sure what it means.


    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a62bec897643f010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

    Q : Must an H-1B alien be working at all times?

    As long as the employer/employee relationship exists, an H-1B alien is still in status. An H-1B alien may work in full or part-time employment and remain in status. An H-1B alien may also be on vacation, sick/maternity/paternity leave, on strike, or otherwise inactive without affecting his or her status.





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  • riva2005
    04-08 01:11 PM
    Guys you are unnecessarily raking your brain over this. This is a blatant anti immigrant anti eb green card bill disguised as h1 reform. The people who wrote this bill are the same people who were carrying placards saying "legal immigrants welcome, no to illegal immigration". Now do you really believe them? Even Jeff sessions was one of them and he is the number one opposer of legal eb immigrants.

    Pitha,

    You're going in the right direction. But a slight correction here.

    These guys...Sessions, Grassley etc dont really support or oppose anything on principle. Its not like they have made up their mind about what they think is right or wrong for the country. They are responding to their campaign contributors. Plain and simple.

    I can cite 2 such examples:

    Firstly, Senator Dianne Feinstein. She was against Amnesty. Thru and thru. Now, the spinach and lettuce growers lobbied her. Suddenly, she supported and sponsored Agjobs bill. And what does Agjobs bill have in it? Mini-Amnesty, but only limited to agricultural workers. And this change of heart didnt even take 6 months. Elected officials tend to be very flexible when you are suffering from weight of heavy and burdensome cash in your pockets that needs to be relieved.

    Another example, our own dear Senator Chuck Grassley from the State of Iowa. He is strong opponent of Amnesty. Believes in the rule of law. Always opposed to legalizing the illegals ... except when he doesnt. When does he not oppose legalization? When is co-sponsors Agjobs bill with Sen. Dianne Feinstein? You see, Iowa isnt exactly the Silicon Priarie if Bay Area is the silicon valley so he dunt give damn about them damn H1B scum. But Iowa does grow quite a bit of corn. And suddenly the corn has become a cash-rich crop due to Ethanol. So the farmers of Iowa had a heavy burden of the extra cash in their pockets. Senator Chuck Grassley relieved that extra weight of cash from corn growers and chose to co-sponsor the Agjobs bill that gives Amnesty to agricultural workers.

    This is the data from the Federal Election commission that tracks money in politics and www.opensecrets.org where there is a more user-friendly way to find out the same data of who gives money to whom in politics and lobbying.


    Senator Dianne Feinstein : 2005-2006 PAC Contributions
    Based on data released by the FEC on Monday, February 19, 2007.

    Obtained from www.opensecrets.org : http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/memberprofile.asp?cid=N00007364&cycle=2006&expand=A07

    TOTAL Agribusiness $97,000

    Crop Production & Basic Processing $47,000
    American Cotton Shippers Assn $1,000
    Blue Diamond Growers $3,000
    Calcot Ltd $1,500
    California Avocado Proponent $1,000
    California Citrus Mutual $3,000
    California Cotton Growers Assn $500
    California Grape & Tree Fruit League $1,500
    California Rice Industry Assn Fund $1,000
    Farmers' Rice Cooperative $8,000
    Florida Crystals $1,000
    Louisiana Rice PAC $1,000
    National Assn of Wheat Growers $1,000
    National Cotton Council $1,000
    National Potato Council $1,000
    Nisei Farmers League $2,000
    Producers Rice Mill Inc $1,000
    Raisin Bargaining Assn $3,500
    Riceland Foods $1,000
    Southern Minn Beet Sugar Co-op $4,000
    Sun-Maid Growers of California $2,000
    Sunkist Growers $1,000
    USA Rice Federation $2,000
    Western Growers Assn $1,000
    Western Pistachio Assn $4,000

    Total Agricultural Services/Products $17,000

    American Assn of Nurserymen $2,000
    American Veterinary Medical Assn $2,000
    California Westside Farmers Inc $1,000
    Farm Credit Council $6,000
    Friant Water PAC $2,000
    National Council of Farmer Co-ops $1,000
    Nestle Purina PetCare $1,000
    Society of American Florists $2,000


    Senator Chuck Grassley : 2005-2006 PAC Contributions
    Based on data released by the FEC on Monday, February 19, 2007.

    Obtained from www.opensecrets.org : http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/memberprofile.asp?cid=N00001758&cycle=2006&expand=P

    Total Agribusiness $34,500

    Crop Production & Basic Processing $1,000
    Dairy $5,000
    Poultry & Eggs $1,000
    Livestock $1,000
    Agricultural Services/Products $14,500
    Food Processing & Sales $8,000
    Forestry & Forest Products $4,000



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  • h1techSlave
    04-15 10:11 AM
    Economists generally say 6 months of expenses.

    If you work in a hot technology with generally good job prospects I would say 3-4 months is good enough. Lot of people under estimate how much money they need on a monthly basis. My suggestion would be to calculate (last 12 months of your total after tax income - your actual savings amount) / 3. This is the amount you actually spend in an average 4 months period last year. Do not go by adding up various expenses. That might lead to missing various payments and would result in a lower monthly expense figure.

    But it would be a good idea to start life insurance for the principal money earner of the family and a will by both parents.

    We are looking to buy a house and the bank is asking us to put down 10%. How much money is considered safe to have after down-payment if we are buying a home. I know it depends on the situation, but I would like some estimates/ball-park figures.





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  • xyzgc
    12-27 12:45 AM
    Do you mean to say that the state and the government of Pakistan did this?

    Let me give you an example... Was Lebanon directly responsible for rocket attacks on Israel? No. Was Hezbollah responsible? Yes. Wasn't Hezbollah part of the govt of Lebanon and active in Lebanese politics? Yes. Did Lebanese govt disarm Hezbollah? No. Doesn't it make Lebanon responsible? Like abcdgc pointed out, ISI is very much a part of Pakistan.



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  • whattodo
    07-11 11:49 AM
    My wife (secondary applicant on I-485) started job 1.5 months after her H4 to H1 approval. She needed to wait for SSN and that took 1.5 months. Will that create any issue? I am planning to use AC21 to change job. Will that result in extra scrutiny?





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  • fide_champ
    04-05 10:54 PM
    Jang.Lee,
    I totally aggree with you. I am also from socal and a regular visior to irvinehousingblog.
    Currenly I am in apt and tired of living in apt, but I am definitely in no rush to buy and would probably find a good private home to rent.

    Please check your PM.

    Land cannot be manufactured. The population is growing by the day and people need a place to live. So the space is at a premium here. The housing market maybe down because of the sub-prime crisis and the banks going out of business. But eventually it has to come back. Maybe this market is not for people who are looking to invest.

    Look at india for instance: whatever state the economy is in, the housing always booms because of the supply/demand factor. Eventually US will reach that stage unless otherwise the population shrinks.



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  • yabadaba
    02-22 08:46 AM
    Dobbsians will fail in establishing anti-immigrant sentiments, because at anytime, general psyche of Americans will always be "US is a nation of immigrants". US is different in this respect compared to european nations.

    Its time we start referring to him as Communist Lou Dobbs because all he spits out is the communist agenda. People cant make more money, corporations cant make money and everything that doesn't fit into his philosophy is war on the middle class.

    and this is the middle class that is spending money like crazy...buying 5000$ television sets and huge SUVs on leases. In the end of course u will not have money if u spend like this. Communist Lou Dobb's philosophy is that there is no personal accountability. Everything that is wrong with people's lives is because of immigrants and corporations. People go berserk with their spending and that comes back to bite them in the bum. then if they are laid off, which happens in every economy across the world, they cannot support their spending habits and all this blame is allotted to corporations and immigrants.

    Of course he will have a large viewership...its people who don't want to be accountable that flock to his show and feel happy when they have someone else to blame for their reckless lives.





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  • Legal
    08-07 10:38 AM
    :D:D:D:D

    If you are interested to lead this effort, you can lead a thread of jokes on the forum and lighten up everyone.

    Des vs. Pardes

    1. Mother-in law:
    In Des - A women capable of making your life miserable.
    In Pardes - A women you never fight with, because where else you will find such a dedicated baby sitter for free?

    2. Husband:
    In Des - A boring human species, who listens more to his mother than you, and orders you around to serve him, his parents and siblings.
    In Pardes - Still boring, but now a useful human species that comes in handy when the house needs to be vacuumed.

    3. Friend:
    In Des - A person whose house you can drop into any time of the day or night and you'll always be welcome.
    In Pardes - A person who you have to call first to check and make sure he is not busy.

    4. Wife:
    In Des - A woman who gives you your underwear and towel when you go to take a shower.
    In Pardes - A woman who yells at you not to leave tub dirty when you go to take bath.

    5. Son:
    In Des - A teenager, who without asking will carry your grocery bags from the market.
    In Pardes - A teenager, who suddenly remembers he has lot of homework when you start mowing the lawn.

    6. Daughter:
    In Des - A lovely doll, who brings tears to your eyes when her doli is about to leave.
    In Pardes - A lovely doll, who brings you to tears long before any doli time.

    8. Father:
    In Des - A person you are afraid of, and who is never to be disobeyed.
    In Pardes - A person to whom you pretend to obey, after all he is the one paying your college tuition.

    9. Desi Engineer:
    In Des - A person with a respectable job and lots of upper ki kamai. :D
    In Pardes - A person without a secure job, who always dreams one day he will be rich.

    10. Desi Doctor:
    In Des - A respectable person with ok income.
    In Pardes - A money making machine, who has a money spending machine at home called "doctor ki biwi".

    11. Bhangra:
    In Des - A vigorous punjabi festival dance.
    In Pardes - A desi dance you do, when you don't know how to dance.

    12. Software Engineer:
    In Des - A high-tech guy, :D, always anxious to queue consulate visa line.
    In Pardes - The same hitech guy, who does Ganapati puja everyday, and says 'This is my last year in the US (or wherever)' every year.

    13. A Green Card holder bachelor:
    In Des - the guy can't speak Hindi, parents of good looking girls are dying to hook him, wears jacket in summer, says he has a BMW back there.
    In Pardes - the guy can't speak English, wears jacket all the time, works in a Candy store at Manhatta n, dreams of owning a BMW.



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  • xyzgc
    12-26 06:17 PM
    Actually the best strategy will be to build up troops in Kandahar, completely in secrecy. Afghan govt can help India if India plays some deft diplomatic moves. Then hit Quetta by launching an attack from Kandahar. Pakistanis won't even know what hit them. They will be waiting for attack to come from their eastern border.

    Like this thread. I'm no defence strategist either but its good to read this.





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  • paragpujara
    08-06 03:08 PM
    PEOPLE WONDER WHY THEY R PAID SO MUCH......FOR JUST BEING ON THE PHONE ------ TAKE A LOOK: last one is really good !!!!

    1). Tech Support: "I need you to right-click on the Open Desktop."
    Customer "Ok."
    Tech Support: "Did you get a pop-up menu?"
    Customer: "No."
    Tech Support: "Ok. Right click again. Do you see a pop-up menu?"
    Customer "No."
    Tech Support:: "Ok, sir. Can you tell me what you have done up until this point?"
    Customer: "Sure, you told me to write 'click' and I wrote 'click'."
    *****************************

    2) Customer: "I received the software update you sent, but I am still getting the same error message."
    Tech Support:: "Did you install the update?"
    Customer: "No. Oh, am I supposed to install it to get it to work?"
    ***********************
    3).Customer:: "I'm having trouble installing Microsoft Word."
    Tech Support:: "Tell me what you've done."
    Customer: "I typed 'A:SETUP'."!
    Tech Support:: "Ma'am, remove the disk and tell me what it says."
    Customer:: "It says '[PC manufacturer] Restore and Recovery disk'."
    Tech Support:: "Insert the MS Word setup disk."
    Customer:: "What?"
    Tech Support: "Did you buy MS word?"
    Customer: "No..."
    ****************************
    4).Customer:: "Do I need a computer to use your software?"
    Tech Support:: ?!%#$
    ********************************

    5).Tech Support:: "Ok, in the bottom left hand side of the screen, can you see the 'OK' button displayed?"
    Customer: "Wow. How can you see my screen from there ?"
    ******************************************
    6) Tech Support:: "What type of computer do you have?"
    Customer:: "A white one."
    *********************************
    7). Tech Support:: "Type 'A:' at the prompt."
    Customer:: "How do you spell that?"
    **********************************
    8). Tech Support:: "What operating system are you running?"
    Customer: "Pentium."
    ***************************************
    11).Customer: "How do I print my voicemail?"
    **************************
    12). Customer: "You've got to fix my computer. I urgently need to print document, but the computer won't boot properly."
    Tech Support: "What does it say?"
    Customer: "Something about an error and non-system disk."
    Tech Support: "Look at your machine. Is there a floppy inside?"
    Customer: "No, but there's a sticker saying there's an Intel inside."
    ***********************************
    14). Tech Support: "Just call us back if there's a problem. We're open 24 hours."
    Customer: "Is that Eastern time?"
    ********************************
    15). Tech Support:: "What does the screen say now?"
    Customer: "It says, 'Hit ENTER when ready'."
    Tech Support:: "Well?"
    Customer: "How do I know when it's ready?"
    *****************************
    16). A plain computer illeterate guy rings tech support to report that his computer is faulty.
    Tech: What's the problem?
    User: There is smoke coming out of the power supply.
    Tech: You'll need a new power supply.
    User: No, I don't! I just need to change the startup files.
    Tech: Sir, the power supply is faulty. You'll need to replace it.
    User: No way! Someone told me that I just needed to
    change the startup and it will fix the problem! All I need is for you to tell me the command.
    ****
    10 minutes later, the User is still adamant that he is right. The tech is frustrated and fed up.
    Tech: Sorry, Sir. We don't normally tell our customers this, but there is an undocumented DOS
    command that will fix the problem.
    User: I knew it!
    Tech: Just add the line LOAD NOSMOKE.COM at the end of the CONFIG.SYS.
    Letme know how it goes.
    ****
    10 minutes later.
    User: It didn't work. The power supply is still smoking.
    Tech: Well, what version of DOS are you using?
    User: MS-DOS 6.22.
    Tech: That's your problem there. That version of DOS didn't come with NOSMOKE. Contact Microsoft and ask them for a patch that will give you ! the file. Let me know how it goes.

    1 hour later.

    User: I need a new power supply.
    Tech: How did you come to that conclusion?
    User: Well, I rang Microsoft and told him about what you said, and he started asking questions about the make of power supply.
    Tech: Then what did he say?
    User: He told me that my power supply isn't compatible with NOSMOKE.



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  • nojoke
    04-15 04:02 PM
    Are people seriously arguing that a child will not be happier in a bigger home, everything else remaining constant? Seriously, is someone actually arguing this?

    And money can't buy happiness? Really? Are you saying everything else remaining constant if I gave you money it would make you sad? Seriously? Who is this person who would be sadder if I gave him money? I would like to meet him.

    You people need to stop reminiscing about your childhood days and how happy your childhood was even though you had no money. I have a feeling that your child doesn't really care. Sure, give your child lots of love, but for Christ's sake, if you can afford it, don't make him / her spend his / her childhood in a small cramped apartment just because you had to.

    You are confused. Money alone cannot buy happiness. People with less money are all not sad. There is a difference between what people are saying in this forum and what you are implying that they said.
    Your child will be happy in rented house too. There are advantages with renting. There are various factors other than space alone. This does not imply that your child will be sad in a bigger house. As I said you are getting too confused.





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  • abhisam
    07-27 01:59 PM
    UN, can you please reply? Thanks!





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  • validIV
    06-05 11:43 AM
    Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.

    When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.

    30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.





    gcisadawg
    12-23 12:52 AM
    Unfortunately the religious muslim leaders dont want the community to get educated, prosper and westernized because than they would loose control..its precisely for this reason that the religious leaders of this community have for centuries scared the followers of the community with gods wrath if they changed. The Muslim religion has to become progressive and moderate.

    Hmm....I'm trying to answer these questions....
    What control a religious Muslim leader has on his followers? Can he prevent them from being educated or prevent one from working after he graduates inspite of his initial control? I've some Muslim friends. I'd be curious to check with them whether their careers got jeopardised by religious or political Muslim leaders?. Can you do me a favor. If you do have Muslim friends, can you check with them?

    I'm thinking in terms of the following..Sometimes I'm naive..Pls. excuse me for that...I haven't mastered the inner workings of Muslim community yet.

    A Muslim guy gets an offer from oracle, IBM and Wipro. He goes to a Mullah/MP to get advice about which to choose? Assuming our Mullah/local MP is knowledgeable, he says "dont do Oracle because it is run by a Jewish guy, dont to IBM since it is a company of great satan. Do Wipro since it is run by a Muslim". :)

    Okay, it is a bit too much. Can the Mullah stop a father from educating his daughter? Agreed, he might have some influence. But if the father is rational/already educated, he would treat that advice as suggestion rather than a firm decision.

    To me, Muslims need to educate their daughters more and more...And Muslim men need to stay away from gulf type jobs and come to US and be backlogged in EB GC so that they can join IV and reply to this thread so that some of the burden on ss1026 is lessened!! :)

    Peace,
    gcIsaDawg





    dba9ioracle
    08-05 01:42 PM
    With all due respect, I totaly disagree with original poster. probably, he needs to know more about immigration rules..



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